No Anomalies Found in 2025 Economic Growth: Govt

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Indonesia's economic growth throughout 2025 is back in the spotlight. 

The Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) reported that national economic growth in 2025 was 5.11 percent year-on-year (yoy), higher than the previous year, despite a slowdown in state tax revenue. 

The government emphasized that this achievement is based on a strong foundation and supported by structural factors rather than abnormal conditions. 

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto assessed that the government's stimulus measures and the industrial sector's performance were instrumental in maintaining national economic growth. 

“The industrial sector has grown 5.4 percent, which shows expansion compared to last year,” Minister Airlangga said at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs office in Jakarta on Thursday, February 6, 2026, as quoted by Antara.

Minister Airlangga added that the agricultural sector also grew higher than the previous year. “This is in addition to job creation and various incentives that we have provided,” he said.

Minister Airlangga emphasized that there were no anomalies in economic growth in 2025. He said that the increase in the value-added portion of gross domestic product (GDP) was a fundamental indicator of strengthening.

The issue of anomalies arose because growth in 2025 exceeded the 2024 achievement of 5.03 percent, even as tax revenue fell short of the target.

By the end of 2025, tax revenue reached IDR 1,917.6 trillion (USD 113.58 billion), or 87.6 percent of the state budget target of IDR 2,189.3 trillion, leaving a shortfall of around IDR 271.7 trillion.

This mismatch between higher GDP growth and weaker fiscal intake fueled speculation that the growth figures might not align with fiscal realities.

Analysts pointed to moderating commodity prices and higher tax refunds as factors behind the revenue shortfall. The deficit widened to 2.92 percent of GDP, close to the legal ceiling of 3 percent, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Regarding this condition, Minister Airlangga acknowledged that optimizing tax revenue remains a challenge for the government. He said coordination with the Minister of Finance, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, continues to be pursued to improve fiscal performance.

“We are discussing how to optimize Coretax because we do not want tax revenue to be at a single-digit level. Various measures are being discussed and improved,” Minister Airlangga said.

BPS noted that Indonesia's real GDP reached IDR 13,580.5 trillion throughout 2025, up from IDR 12,920.5 trillion in 2024. Meanwhile, GDP at current market prices totaled IDR 23,821.1 trillion last year. ***