BMKG Urges Preparedness for Strong El Niño Impacts

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) affirmed the importance of cross-sector preparedness in facing the potential impacts of the El Niño phenomenon which is expected to reach a strong category in 2026. Such measures are considered necessary to reduce risks including drought, disruptions to food production, forest and land fires, deteriorating air quality, and possible pressure on regional inflation.

BMKG Head, Teuku Faisal Fathani, made the statement during a socialization event on preparedness for El Niño impacts held within the Regional Inflation Control Coordination Meeting organized by the Ministry of Home Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia in Jakarta. The event was led by Home Affairs Minister Tito Karnavian and attended by representatives from the National Disaster Management Agency, Statistics Indonesia, the Coordinating Ministry for Human Development and Cultural Affairs, the Presidential Staff Office, regional governments, and other stakeholders.

As quoted by BMKG website, Faisal explained the latest developments regarding El Niño 2026 and its possible effects on national climate conditions. Based on BMKG monitoring results, El Niño has entered the strong category with a probability of reaching 98 percent and may reduce rainfall in several Indonesian regions, especially south of the equator during the peak dry season.

He explained that El Niño is expected to continue for approximately nine to twelve months, although this does not mean Indonesia will experience drought throughout the entire period. Areas expected to experience the most significant impacts include Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, parts of southern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and southern Papua, where rainfall from July to October 2026 may remain below climatological averages.

Beyond affecting agriculture and water availability, El Niño may increase the risks of forest and land fires, worsening air quality caused by higher pollutant concentrations, and public health disturbances including acute respiratory infections and heat-related illnesses. BMKG also warned that agriculture and food production could experience growth disruptions, declining productivity, and increasing crop failure risks due to water shortages.

Faisal said, “Preparedness must be carried out across sectors. Risks related to drought, forest and land fires, air quality, and public health need early anticipation through strong coordination between the central government, regional governments, and all stakeholders.” He added that Indonesia’s 699 Seasonal Zones require mitigation and adaptation strategies tailored to local conditions while encouraging regional governments to utilize BMKG information and coordinate with local BMKG Technical Implementation Units.

BMKG further recommended mitigation measures across land management, urban planning, public health, economic planning, food security, and energy management sectors. Closing his presentation, Faisal reaffirmed BMKG’s commitment to continuously monitor atmospheric and climate dynamics while providing information and early warnings to support decision-making and strengthen Indonesia’s preparedness for El Niño 2026.