JCI Volatile as Market Tracks Fed Sentiment

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is expected to experience volatile movement on Monday, August 31, 2026, on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), driven by a mix of global and domestic sentiment.

The JCI opened down 7.01 basis points (bps), or 0.11 percent, at 6,511.11. Meanwhile, the blue‑chip index LQ45 also weakened by 1.11 bps, or 0.17 percent, to 640.71.

Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, Liza Camelia Suryanata, said the potential for a JCI rebound remains open as long as the index stays above its support level. “As long as the JCI can hold above the 6,357 area, the potential for a rebound remains open to retest the 6,551 resistance level before continuing its rise toward 6,635 and 6,733,” Liza said in her analysis in Jakarta on Monday, August 31, as quoted by Antara.

Conversely, stronger selling pressure could trigger a deeper correction. “If selling pressure increases and breaks below the 6,454 support, the index could correct toward 6,385–6,377, which serves as its strong support level,” she said.

From abroad, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, particularly concerns over oil supply disruptions. Improved shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and plans for the Iran–Oman corridor have helped lower global energy risk premiums.

Meanwhile, comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who said inflation has not shown significant deceleration, have heightened market concerns that the process of lowering price pressures may take longer.

Liza said this condition has prompted investors to reposition their portfolios, especially in growth‑oriented stocks that are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations.

Monetary policy focus remains on the Fed’s stance as inflation stays above the 2 percent target. Warsh indicated that policymakers still have work to do to bring inflation back toward the central bank’s goal. “This statement reinforces the perception that US monetary policy is likely to remain tight for longer if inflation trends do not show sufficiently significant improvement,” Liza said.

Domestically, the IDX is preparing to test changes to the minimum stock price threshold from IDR 50 to IDR 1 per share in the regular and cash markets, along with new auto‑rejection classifications, on August 22 and 29. The policy is targeted for implementation on September 7.

The government has also relaxed the obligation for 64 mining exporters to place Foreign Exchange Proceeds from Natural Resource Exports (DHE SDA), under Article 18A of Government Regulation No. 21/2026, effective for Export Customs Declarations starting September 1, 2026.

Exporters meeting the criteria are now required to place only 30 percent of their DHE SDA for at least three months, compared with the general requirement of 100 percent for at least 12 months. However, all export proceeds must still be repatriated into Indonesia’s financial system.

CORE Indonesia estimates that the policy covers potential DHE of around USD 30–40 billion per year, mainly from companies in the nickel industry chain, nickel‑based steel, alumina, and other processed mineral sectors. ***