Oil Rises, Rupiah Weakens before Fed Decision

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Global oil prices rose further after reports of attacks on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's major energy shipping routes. The security concerns have raised fears of possible supply disruptions, pushing crude oil prices higher in international markets.

During morning trading, Brent crude oil was traded at US$96 per barrel. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged slightly lower to about 101.06. Even though the dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies, Indonesia's rupiah still came under pressure.

The rupiah traded at around IDR 17,910 per US dollar in the morning session. Investors remained cautious as rising energy prices could increase Indonesia's import costs and create additional pressure on the country's currency. Market participants are also closely watching global developments before making new investment decisions.

Unlike the rupiah, Indonesia's stock market opened on a positive note. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) advanced and traded near 6,346, supported by a generally stronger performance across major Asian stock markets. The improvement in regional investor sentiment helped lift Indonesian equities despite external uncertainties.

With few major economic data releases scheduled for the day, financial markets are expected to be driven mainly by technical trading and global news. Analysts expect the JCI to move within a range of 6,300 to 6,370, while the rupiah is likely to trade between IDR 17,870 and IDR 17,950 per US dollar.

Most investors are taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of next week's policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Market expectations currently suggest that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. If that happens, the rupiah could stay within a wider range of IDR 17,850 to IDR 18,000 per US dollar, although volatility may still occur.

However, geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain an important risk for global financial markets. Any escalation in the conflict could disrupt oil supplies, drive energy prices even higher, and increase uncertainty across international markets. Such developments would likely affect currencies, stocks, and investor confidence worldwide.

Meanwhile, gold prices also remained elevated as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. Gold traded at approximately US$4,114 per troy ounce, equivalent to around IDR 2.38 million per gram, reflecting continued demand for assets considered safer during periods of market volatility.

Writer: Gunawan Benjamin (Economist, Islamic University of North Sumatra)