July Retail Sales Seen Rising 0.9 Percent Amid Demand Normalization: BI

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta – Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that retail sales in July 2026 will increase on an annual basis. The Real Sales Index (IPR) for July is projected to reach 224.4, or 0.9 percent year-on-year (yoy).

Executive Director of BI’s Communications Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, said the projected index reflects stronger growth compared with the previous month.

“This increase in sales was driven by higher sales in the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco category, accompanied by positive growth in the Auto Parts and Accessories category as well as Other Household Goods,” Denny said in a written statement in Jakarta on August 11, 2026, as quoted on BI’s official website.

Meanwhile, retail sales in July are projected to decline by 0.3 percent month-to-month (mtm), influenced by the normalization of demand following the National Religious Holidays (HBKN) period and school breaks.

Denny added that July 2026 sales performance was better than in July 2025, when monthly sales contracted by -4.1 percent (mtm).

In June 2026, the IPR stood at 225.0. Steady annual sales growth in the Spare Parts and Accessories, Other Household Goods, and Other Goods categories supported this performance.

Monthly, retail sales in June grew by 0.7 percent (mtm), an improvement from the previous month’s decline of -1.5 percent (mtm). This development aligns with sustained demand during the HBKN period and school holidays.

On the price front, inflationary pressure in September is projected to ease, while inflationary pressure in December is expected to rise.

The General Price Expectations Index (IEH) for September 2026 stood at 155.2, lower than the August 2026 IEH of 178.0. Meanwhile, the IEH for December 2026 is projected at 168.1, slightly higher than the November 2026 IEH of 167.5. ***