Rupiah Falls Past IDR 18,000 Amid Global Market Pressure

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - The Indonesian rupiah faced renewed depreciation against the US dollar in Thursday morning trading, weakening by 0.27 percent to slide past a new psychological threshold to reach IDR 18,015 per US dollar. This positioning marks one of the weakest levels recorded for the local currency in recent times.

Currency analyst from Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, noted that this downward movement reflects heavy external pressures driven by escalating global uncertainty, combined with less-than-favorable domestic market sentiments.

"The rupiah is expected to weaken against the strengthening US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East," Lukman Leong said in Jakarta on Thursday, June 4, 2026, as quoted by Antara.

The greenback's strengthening stance on the global stage is fueled by a combination of geopolitical risk and strong macroeconomic performance in the United States. Regarding geopolitical friction, escalating political and military tensions in the Middle East have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, boosting international demand for the US dollar.

For the resilient US labor market, recently published US employment and labor data outperformed initial market projections, signaling sustained economic momentum. Finally, in terms of strong service sector performance, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services activity index beat expectations, further inflating investor optimism regarding American economic growth.

This multi-faceted combination has triggered a capital flight toward the US dollar, exerting significant pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupiah.

On the home front, local market sentiments have proven insufficient to cushion or reverse the rupiah's slide. However, analysts project that the currency's downward trajectory could be capped by active stabilization policies from the central bank.

As the exchange rate tests these new psychological boundaries, Bank Indonesia (BI) is anticipated to ramp up its market presence. The central bank will likely increase the frequency and volume of its interventions across financial markets to restore exchange rate order and curb excessive volatility.

"Domestic sentiment remains poor, but is approaching a new psychological level, which is likely why Bank Indonesia will intervene aggressively," Lukman added.

Factoring in these aggressive stabilization measures alongside ongoing global risks, the rupiah's exchange rate is projected to remain highly volatile, fluctuating within a forecasted technical range of IDR 17,900 to IDR 18,050 per US dollar for the immediate period. ***