RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) opened higher on Monday, May 25, 2026, starting the trading session in positive territory at 6,187.65.

This level was above Friday’s closing on May 22, which stood at 6,162.04, marking a gain of 25.61 points, or 0.42 percent, at the opening.

Capital market analyst Hendra Wardana cautioned that the rebound does not yet signal a solid recovery. He said market trends remain fragile and sensitive to both global and domestic sentiment.

Hendra explained that the JCI’s rise was largely driven by buying activity in cyclical and commodity stocks such as MDKA, INCO, and BRPT. “Meanwhile, the banking sector, which has long been the backbone of the JCI, remains under pressure,” he said.

He noted that the index’s gains are not yet fully supported by broad capital inflows. “In other words, domestic sentiment remains the primary drag on the JCI going forward,” Hendra stated.

He pointed to inconsistent government policies, fiscal uncertainty, and rupiah depreciation as key factors weighing on the market. Foreign investors’ concerns about risks in Indonesia also add pressure.

Globally, tensions between the United States and Iran, along with surging oil prices, pose major challenges. In the short term, oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could pose serious risks for Indonesia.

“Such conditions could widen the current account deficit, increase energy subsidies, and drive inflation,” Hendra said. He added that markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy amid global uncertainty.

Expectations that the Fed will not cut rates this year are keeping foreign funds in U.S. dollar assets, limiting capital inflows into emerging markets such as Indonesia.

Hendra said the rupiah’s rapid depreciation is prompting foreign investors to sell shares more aggressively. Slowing consumer purchasing power and domestic regulatory uncertainty are also leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see stance.

He believes the JCI may undergo further correction before achieving a healthier rebound. The psychological level of 6,000 is considered a key short-term threshold to monitor.

“The market is better described as being in a bottoming-out phase, not yet a new bull market,” Hendra said, noting that such phases are typically marked by high volatility and fluctuating index movements.

Nevertheless, he sees the growing number of domestic retail investors as a major force that could support the JCI. He emphasized the need for education on long-term investing and risk management to maintain stability.

Hendra also highlighted several stocks with low valuations but solid fundamentals, including IMPC, UNVR, ULTJ, and SCMA.

He concluded that a sustained JCI recovery toward a bullish trend will require easing global geopolitical tensions, rupiah stability, consistent government policies, and improved corporate performance in the second half of 2026. (Gusti Panji)