RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - The Indonesian Rupiah showed resilience on Tuesday morning, March 31, 2026, gaining 15 points (0.09 percent) to reach IDR 16,987 per US dollar. This slight recovery follows a previous close at the IDR 17,002 level and comes amidst a complex global backdrop of surging oil prices and geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Currency analyst Lukman Leong from Doo Financial Futures noted that the Rupiah’s upward movement is primarily driven by "dovish" signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have temporarily eased fears of further interest rate hikes in the United States.

Despite a 45 percent surge in oil prices over the past month, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated there is no "urgent need" to raise rates.

Powell explained that the US central bank is wary of overreacting to energy price shocks, as aggressive tightening could stifle economic growth long after oil prices stabilize. Currently, the Fed maintains its interest rate range at 3.5–3.75 percent, a position Powell believes remains well-suited to navigate current inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks.

"The rupiah has the potential to strengthen against the US dollar following dovish statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Fed official Williams," Lukman said in Jakarta on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, as quoted by Antara.

The shift in sentiment is further supported by a weakening US labor market. Reports indicate that the American economy lost 92,000 jobs last month, a sharp contrast to the ideal growth target of 100,000 to 150,000 jobs per month.

President of the New York Fed John C. Williams, echoed these concerns, suggesting that labor market fragility may discourage the central bank from adopting a more aggressive stance.

The market outlook for March 31, 2026, shows the rupiah standing at a current rate of IDR 16,987 per USD.

Analysts have set a projected trading range between IDR 16,950 and IDR 17,050 per USD for the remainder of the day. This movement is being shaped by a tug-of-war between two primary factors: the dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric providing some relief to emerging markets, and the persistent pressure from rising global oil prices.

Despite the morning gain, analysts warn that the rupiah’s appreciation may be limited. General market sentiment remains cautious as high energy costs continue to weigh on global economies. Domestically, the rupiah is expected to fluctuate within the IDR 16,950 to IDR 17,050 range for the remainder of the day. ***