RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Indonesia’s economy is projected to remain expansive in early 2026, with the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr seasons expected to drive domestic consumption. Household spending continues to play a dominant role in gross domestic product growth.

“Economic growth for the first quarter of 2026 is projected at 5.05 percent, influenced by the seasonal factors of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr,” said Executive Director of the Center of Economics and Law Studies (Celios), Bhima Yudhistira, in Jakarta on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, as quoted by Antara.

Bhima noted that growth could be higher, but pressure on public consumption remains a challenge. He pointed to the tendency of people to save their holiday allowance (THR) rather than spend it, driven by concerns over rising energy and food prices after Eid. This restraint could limit the usual surge in consumption during major religious holidays.

He suggested that the government maintain price stability during the holiday travel period to encourage public confidence in spending. Bhima also highlighted that the Eid return flow is expected to remain limited due to limited job opportunities in urban areas, urging stronger job-creation efforts to improve labor mobility.

Seasonal growth potential, he added, could be enhanced by optimizing the domestic tourism sector. Promoting new destinations is seen as a way to extend tourists’ length of stay and increase spending. “Seasonally, the exodus boosts the tourism sector, but moving forward, more aggressive promotion of new tourist destinations is needed so that tourists stay longer,” he said.

The government has set a target for first-quarter economic growth of 5.5–5.6 percent year-on-year. This target is supported by accelerated government spending and a fiscal stimulus package aimed at maintaining purchasing power.

The stimulus includes transportation incentives for the Eid homecoming, such as a 30 percent discount on train and sea travel, free ferry services, and a 17–18 percent discount on airline tickets. These measures are expected to boost mobility and economic activity during Ramadan and Eid. ***