BMKG: Dry Conditions Persist across Indonesia through October

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of Indonesia through October 2026, according to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) on Thursday, October 1, 2026. BMKG meteorological and geophysical observer Leni Nazarudin said 562 of Indonesia’s 699 seasonal zones, or around 80.4 percent, had entered the dry season during the second ten-day period of September 2026.

“The number that has already entered the dry season is 562, which is about 80.4%,” Leni said at the “The Tourism Industry in Action to Combat Climate Change” webinar.

BMKG’s forecast shows that weekly rainfall is expected to remain mostly in the low category, or below 50 millimeters per week, over the coming weeks. The conditions are expected to be particularly pronounced in southern parts of Indonesia, including southern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, southern Papua, Java and the Lesser Sunda Islands.

“The forecast indicates that weekly rainfall will be mostly in the low category—that is, less than 50 mm per week,” she said.

The agency also projects below-normal rainfall conditions across much of Indonesia during the period. Its forecast for the second ten-day period of October indicates that many areas will still experience dry conditions.

“So, as of this October, based on the forecast for the second ten-day period of October 2026, most regions are still experiencing drought,” Leni said.

The dry season has already been more extensive than normal, with BMKG noting that the accumulated number of seasonal zones entering the dry season had been higher than normal since the third ten-day period of May. Meanwhile, a transition toward wetter conditions is expected to begin in November, with some areas forecasted to shift from low into moderate and high rainfall.