RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts most Indonesian regions will enter the 2026 dry season earlier. The shift follows the end of Weak La Niña in February 2026, transitioning toward neutral climate conditions.

Head of BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani explained global climate anomalies in the Pacific Ocean remain closely monitored. The ENSO index currently stands at minus 0.28, indicating neutral conditions expected until June 2026.

Teuku Faisal warned that potential development of weak to moderate El Niño requires attention starting midyear. “Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted to remain stable in the neutral phase throughout the year,” he said during a press conference on 2026 Dry Season Forecast in Jakarta, Wednesday, 4 March 2026.

As quoted by BMKG press release, the seasonal transition is marked by shifting winds from the Asian Monsoon to the Australian Monsoon pattern. BMKG recorded 114 Seasonal Zones entering the dry season beginning April 2026 across several regions.

These regions include northern coastal western Java and parts of Central Java and East Java. Other affected areas include West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and smaller sections of Kalimantan and Sulawesi.

Meanwhile, Deputy for Climatology, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, said 184 Seasonal Zones will follow entering dry season during May 2026. Another 163 Seasonal Zones are predicted to enter the dry season beginning June 2026 nationwide.

Based on BMKG analysis, most Indonesian regions will reach the dry season peak during August 2026. The peak period is expected across 429 Seasonal Zones, representing approximately 61.4 percent of Indonesia.

BMKG projects the 2026 dry season will generally be drier than usual across much of Indonesia. The agency estimates 451 Seasonal Zones will experience below normal rainfall conditions during the period.