Retail Sales Performance Expected to Grow in June 2026: BI

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Bank Indonesia (BI) forecasts that retail sales performance in June 2026 will remain stable. Annually, the Real Sales Index (RSI) for June is projected at 221.6, or down 4.4 percent year‑on‑year (yoy).

BI’s Executive Director of the Communications Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, said the projection is supported by positive annual sales growth in the Spare Parts and Accessories Group as well as the Other Household Goods Group.

“Monthly, retail sales in June are projected to decline by 0.8 percent month‑to‑month (mtm), an improvement compared with the previous period’s 1.5 percent contraction,” Denny said in a written statement in Jakarta on Thursday, June 9, as quoted on BI’s official website.

The improvement was driven by stronger sales in the “Other Household Goods” category (up 1.9 percent, mtm) and the “Clothing” subcategory (up 4.7 percent, mtm), coinciding with the start of the school vacation period in late June.

Meanwhile, the Cultural and Recreational Goods Group (‑2.0 percent, mtm), the Spare Parts and Accessories Group (‑3.1 percent, mtm), and the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Group (‑0.7 percent, mtm) showed improvement from the previous period, though they remained in contraction territory.

In May, the RSI stood at 223.4, supported by steady annual sales growth in the Auto Parts and Accessories, Motor Vehicle Fuel, and Culture and Recreation Groups. Monthly, retail sales in May fell 1.5 percent (mtm), an improvement over April’s sharp 11.6 percent decline.

“This development was influenced by consumer demand during the National Religious Holidays (HBKN) period -- the Ascension of Jesus Christ, Eid al‑Adha, and Vesak,” Denny said.

On the price front, inflationary pressure is projected to rise in August, while November is expected to remain relatively stable.

This is reflected in the General Price Expectations Index (GPEI) for August, which is projected at 178.0 -- higher than July’s 175.8 -- driven by rising raw material prices. Meanwhile, the November GPEI is projected at 167.5, relatively stable compared with October’s 167.6. ***