RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 reached 5.61% year-on-year. However, this number should not be overcelebrated because several temporary factors supported the growth.

First, the growth was influenced by a low base effect. In the same period of 2025, the economy only grew by 4.86%, so the comparison made this year’s growth look stronger.

Second, government spending played a major role in driving growth. Government expenditure grew by 21.81% and became one of the main drivers of economic recovery in the first quarter.

Third, religious celebrations such as Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr increased public spending significantly. Consumer activity during the holiday season helped strengthen economic performance during this period.

Fourth, the impact of the Iran–US/Israel conflict has only started to appear since April until now. The weakening Rupiah and rising plastic prices have begun to reduce sales turnover and push inflation higher.

This means the first quarter growth has not fully reflected the negative effects of the conflict in the Middle East. Moving forward, Indonesia will face bigger challenges such as a weaker Rupiah, widening fiscal deficit, higher production costs, and possible increases in basic commodity prices.

The first quarter growth data also received criticism because informal employment increased slightly in February 2026 to 59.42%. The statistics agency also said the recovery was partly supported by the Free Nutritious Meal program, which may have been counted as household consumption spending.

With inflation expected to rise further, selling prices will likely continue increasing. This situation could reduce people’s purchasing power and pose risks for workers and manufacturing industries, especially sectors that depend on plastic materials.

Therefore, the government should remain realistic and avoid over-celebrating the first quarter economic recovery. Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still facing serious internal problems and strong external pressures caused by the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz.