BI Projects March Retail Sales Growth at 2.4 Percent

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta – Bank Indonesia (BI) projects retail sales performance in March 2026 to continue growing, although the annual growth rate will be lower than in the previous month. The Real Sales Index (IPR) for March is estimated to expand by 2.4 percent year-on-year (yoy).

“This retail sales performance is primarily driven by growth in the Spare Parts and Accessories Group, as well as the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Group, and the Cultural and Recreational Goods Group,” said BI Communication Department Executive Director Ramdan Denny Prakoso in the central bank’s retail sales survey released on Monday, April 13, 2026.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in March are projected to grow by 9.3 percent month-to-month (mtm), higher than the 4.1 percent (mtm) recorded in February. The increase was supported by most categories, particularly the Information and Communication Equipment Group and the Motor Vehicle Fuel Group.

“The Clothing subgroup also contributed to the March increase, driven by stronger household demand during the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 2026 period,” Denny added.

Annually, the IPR in February grew by 6.5 percent (yoy), higher than the 5.7 percent (yoy) recorded in January. The February increase was supported by stronger sales across most groups, especially Spare Parts and Accessories, Food, Beverages, and Tobacco, and Clothing.

Monthly retail sales in February rose 4.1 percent (mtm), rebounding from a contraction of 2.7 percent (mtm) in January. The improvement was driven by higher demand in line with the Ramadan period.

“In terms of prices, BI forecasts inflationary pressure over the next three months, specifically in May 2026. Meanwhile, over the next six months, in August 2026, inflation is projected to remain relatively stable,” Denny said.

This forecast is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for May 2026, which stands at 157.4, up from April's 153.9 and in line with rising raw material prices. The IEH for August 2026 is projected at 157.2, relatively stable compared to 157.1 in July. (Gusti Panji/Lasti Martina)