Geopolitical Risks Cloud Rupiah Outlook Despite Stronger Opening

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Rising oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are weighing on Indonesia’s currency outlook, even as the rupiah opened stronger on Thursday, March 26, 2026, in Jakarta trading.

The rupiah gained 22 points, or 0.13 percent, to IDR 16,889 per U.S. dollar at the opening, compared with the previous close of IDR 16,911. However, currency analyst Lukman Leong of Doo Financial Futures cautioned that the rupiah is likely to weaken as skepticism grows over prospects for peace in the Middle East.

“The rupiah is expected to depreciate against the U.S. dollar, which is strengthening again due to doubts about peace in the region. Rising oil prices are also adding pressure,” he said in Jakarta on Thursday, as quoted by Antara.

Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf denied reports of negotiations with the United States, calling them “fake news” aimed at manipulating oil and financial markets.

He stressed that Iran’s people demand “full and regret-inducing punishment” for aggressors, with officials united behind the country’s leadership until war objectives are achieved.

Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had ordered a five-day pause on attacks against electricity and energy infrastructure, citing what he described as “very good and productive” dialogue with Tehran over the past two days.

Amid the uncertainty, global oil prices have surged, with West Texas Intermediate crude reaching USD 91 per barrel and Brent crude climbing back above USD 100 per barrel.

Rising energy prices have prompted the Indonesian government to prepare contingency measures to anticipate a potential energy crisis. “The government has indicated that the fiscal deficit will remain below 3 percent by reducing spending on the free nutritious meals (MBG) program,” Lukman said. ***