RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Global crude oil prices are projected to continue rising throughout 2026, with the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) forecasting prices in the range of USD 95–100 per barrel.

The projection reflects ongoing geopolitical dynamics and production policies of oil-producing nations, which continue to influence the global energy market. Indicators suggest that a trend of strengthening prices has been evident since early this year.

ICDX Research and Development analyst Girta Putra Yoga said crude oil prices still have the potential to rise in the second half of the year. “The resistance level is projected to be in the range of USD 95–100 per barrel, and the support level in the range of USD 80–75 per barrel,” Yoga said in Jakarta on Friday, March 13, 2026, as quoted by Antara.

He explained that the upward trend has been visible since early 2026, driven in part by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintaining production levels through December 2026. Geopolitical tensions have also contributed to rising prices, as international events have added pressure on global oil supply.

Yoga noted that geopolitical escalations in early 2026, including the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US military, US President Donald Trump’s plan to acquire Greenland from Denmark, and the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, pushed oil prices from around USD 57 per barrel in January to approximately USD 90 per barrel in early March.

“The indicators being monitored will still focus on developments in the Middle East, particularly the U.S.-Iran war, OPEC+ production policies, and Trump’s trade tariff policies,” he said.

Yoga added that 2025 was a challenging year for the oil market. Average prices fell more than 21 percent to around USD 60 per barrel by year-end.

In the first half of 2025, prices dropped nearly 10 percent, averaging USD 69 per barrel, pressured by the US government’s tariff war against China and several trading partners, including Canada and Mexico. Prices weakened to around USD 62 per barrel in May before strengthening after the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce.

The upward trend did not last. In the second half of 2025, the threat of additional US tariffs weighed on the energy market once again. OPEC+ signals to increase production and the start of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire in October contributed to downward pressure. Average prices fell nearly 13 percent, trading around USD 64 per barrel. ***