RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Bank Indonesia (BI) projects retail sales performance in February 2026 to increase both year-on-year (yoy) and month-to-month (mtm). The February 2026 Real Sales Index (IPR) is expected to grow 6.9 percent (yoy).

BI’s Executive Director of Communications, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, said that retail sales performance was mainly supported by growth in several product groups, particularly Spare Parts and Accessories, Other Household Equipment, and the Clothing Subgroup.

He added that retail sales in February 2026 are projected to rise 4.4 percent (mtm), driven by public demand during Ramadan and preparations for the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) of Eid al-Fitr 1447 H/2026. “This increase was driven by public demand during Ramadan and preparations for Eid al-Fitr,” Denny said in his statement in Jakarta on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, as quoted from BI’s official website.

In January 2026, the IPR grew 5.7 percent (yoy), supported by sales in Cultural and Recreational Goods, Food, Beverages, and Tobacco, as well as the Clothing Subgroup. On a monthly basis, retail sales contracted 2.7 percent (mtm), consistent with the normalization of public consumption after the Christmas and New Year holidays.

Regarding prices, Denny explained that inflationary pressure over the next three months, specifically in April 2026, is expected to ease. Over the next six months, it is expected to rise in July 2026.

This projection is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH), which is estimated at 153.9 in April 2026, down from 175.7 in March 2026, in line with price normalization following the Eid al-Fitr holiday season. Meanwhile, the July 2026 IEH is projected at 157.1, higher than 156.3 in June 2026, driven by price increases during the new school year.

Overall, the January 2026 Retail Sales Survey indicates that national retail activity remains on a positive track. Despite monthly adjustments after year-end, strong domestic demand continues to support the outlook for retail trade in the coming months.