Rupiah Sideways as Global Markets Brace for US Inflation Data

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta – The rupiah strengthened slightly at the opening of trade in Jakarta on Friday, February 13, 2026, rising 2 points, or 0.01 percent, to IDR 16,826 per US dollar from IDR 16,828 previously.

Permata Bank chief economist Josua Pardede said the currency was overshadowed by a market wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of the United States’ January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

“The market’s focus has now shifted to the January 2026 CPI report to be released tonight to gain further insight into US inflation dynamics, amid differing expectations regarding the timing of potential Fed rate cuts,” Josua said in Jakarta, as quoted by Antara.

He said investors expect the CPI data to show moderating inflation, which could open room for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting its policy rate after holding rates steady at its first meeting of the year. Overall, the market is still anticipating the possibility of two rate cuts in 2026.

Uncertainty also surrounds potential adjustments to the Fed’s balance sheet ahead of the expected appointment of Kevin Warsh as chairman in May 2026.

“Although the incoming chairman was previously known to oppose asset purchases, he has recently signaled openness to coordinating with the Treasury Department to help ease pressure on yields,” Josua said.

Stronger-than-expected US labor market data have also supported the US dollar. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January 2026, significantly higher than December 2025’s revised figure of 48,000 and above the market expectation of 70,000. The increase marked the strongest monthly gain in more than a year.

Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent, indicating early signs of labor market stabilization in 2026.

“In response to these developments, market participants have shifted expectations for the next Fed rate cut to July 2026 from the previously estimated June 2026,” he said.

On the domestic front, pressure on the rupiah has come from the weakening Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), as foreign investors continue to record net outflows.

This reflects caution among offshore investors toward Indonesian equities amid uncertainty over potential rating risks from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI).

Based on these factors, the rupiah is projected to move within the range of IDR 16,775 to IDR 16,900 per US dollar. ***