RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Retail Sales Survey estimates that retail sales will increase on an annual basis in January 2026, although monthly performance is expected to decline.

The Real Sales Index (IPR) for January 2026 is projected to grow by 7.9 percent year-on-year (YoY), supported by higher sales in the cultural and recreational goods category, food, beverages, and tobacco, as well as the clothing subcategory.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in January 2026 are forecast to contract by 0.6 percent month-to-month (MoM), reflecting a normalization of public consumption following the Christmas and New Year holiday period.

BI’s survey results, released on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, indicate that the monthly contraction is milder than in the same period last year, when retail sales shrank by 4.7 percent MoM in January 2025.

In December 2025, the IPR grew by 3.5 percent YoY, driven by increased sales of spare parts and accessories, food, beverages, and tobacco, and cultural and recreational goods.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in December 2025 rose by 3.1 percent MoM, accelerating from 1.5 percent in the previous month. 

The increase was supported by stronger sales of information and communication equipment, cultural and recreational goods, as well as spare parts and accessories. Sales of food, beverages, and tobacco also rose in line with higher demand during the Christmas and New Year period.

Furthermore, BI’s survey indicates potential price pressures in the next three and six months, with inflation expected to rise in March and June 2026.

This outlook is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH), which stood at 175.7 for March 2026 and 156.3 for June 2026, higher than the previous readings of 168.6 and 154.5, respectively. 

The increase in price expectations is attributed to anticipated price adjustments during the upcoming Eid al-Fitr period. (Gusti Panji/Lasti Martina)