RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Indonesia’s macroeconomic outlook appears increasingly resilient as the country moves into 2026, with the government signaling that year-end growth figures for 2025 are likely to surpass earlier benchmarks.

According to Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto, fourth-quarter expansion is projected to exceed the 5.04 percent year-on-year growth recorded in the third quarter, supported by strong fundamental indicators pointing to a solid fiscal finish.

The Minister confirmed that the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) will soon release official data, which he said will reinforce the narrative of a stable national economy.

“Next week, on Thursday, February 5, we will announce economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, which is expected to be greater than growth in the third quarter,” Minister Airlangga said during a briefing in Jakarta on Saturday, January 31, 2026, as quoted by Antara.

He added that the momentum is further supported by a disciplined inflation environment, noting that January 2026 inflation remains safely within the state budget’s target corridor of 2.5 percent plus or minus 1 percent.

This stability continues the positive trend seen in December 2025, when inflation closed at 2.92 percent year-on-year.

“On February 2, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce the inflation rate for January 2026, and it is confirmed that this inflation rate is still within the range according to the State Budget, namely 2.5 plus or minus 1 percent,” Minister Airlangga said, emphasizing the government’s commitment to maintaining consumer purchasing power.

Indonesia’s external position also remains robust, with foreign exchange reserves as of December 2025 standing at USD 156.5 billion, or approximately IDR 2.63 quadrillion. This level is sufficient to cover 6.2 months of imports, providing a substantial buffer against global volatility.

In the banking sector, credit grew by 9.6 percent year-on-year, while Third-Party Funds (DPK) rose 13.83 percent. The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the national banking system remained strong at 25.87 percent, reflecting high solvency and resilience.

On the fiscal side, the government has kept the deficit below the 3 percent cap, while the debt-to-GDP ratio remains well within safe limits at 40 percent. These disciplined fiscal metrics have sustained Indonesia’s Investment-Grade status with major international credit agencies.

“Furthermore, the debt-to-GDP ratio is still below the 60 percent threshold, at 40 percent. And if we look at our country’s investment grade ratings, both from Moody’s, which gives it a rating of Baa2, and Fitch, which gives it a rating of BBB,” Minister Airlangga concluded, signaling that Indonesia is well-positioned for continued stability in the year ahead. ***