RRI.CO.ID, Mataram - A powerful surge in the Asian Monsoon, coupled with complex atmospheric dynamics, has prompted the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) to issue a stern warning for West Nusa Tenggara (NTB). This alert highlights the high potential for extreme weather conditions across the region.

Authorities are bracing for a significant spike in rainfall intensity over the next three days, as westerly winds accelerate the formation of massive convective cloud layers over the region. The atmospheric pressure is further compounded by the active Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and high humidity levels, creating a volatile environment for localized and widespread torrential rain.

Head of the Observation, Data, and Information Working Group Ari Wibianto at the Zainuddin Abdul Madjid Meteorological Station, emphasized the necessity of public preparedness during a press briefing in Mataram on Sunday, February 22, 2026.

"We urge the public and stakeholders to remain increasingly vigilant against the potential for extreme weather," said Ari, as quoted by Antara.

He explained that these atmospheric disturbances are primary drivers for natural disasters such as floods and landslides. These events could significantly disrupt land, sea, and air transportation networks across the archipelago.

Forecast data for the third ten-day period (Dasarian III) of February suggests that the risk is particularly high for major urban and agricultural hubs. There is an 80 to 90 percent probability of rainfall exceeding 100 millimeters per ten-day period in Mataram City, as well as parts of West, Central, and North Lombok, and slivers of West Sumbawa and Sumbawa.

Meanwhile, nearly the entire NTB province faces an 80 to 90 percent chance of receiving at least 50 millimeters of rain during this same window, highlighting a broad geographic threat.

The BMKG has advised citizens to recalibrate their outdoor plans and travel schedules to avoid the peak of the storm activity. "Extreme weather escalation in the NTB region still has the potential to last for the next three days," noted Ari.

Residents are encouraged to utilize official BMKG channels to stay updated on early warning systems and shifting weather patterns. This information is crucial to help mitigate the risks associated with this late-February monsoon surge. ***