Indonesia’s July Oil Price Falls as Global Supply Recovers

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta – Indonesia’s average crude oil price, or Indonesian Crude Price (ICP), fell to US$81.68 per barrel in July 2026, down US$1.77 from the previous month as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and global oil supplies gradually recovered. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) said the decline reflected adjustments in international crude oil markets following a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and improving global oil supply flows.

The July ICP was set under the Ministry’s Decree No. 319.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2026 on Indonesia’s crude oil prices for July 2026. Director General of Oil and Gas Laode Sulaeman announced the figure at the Directorate General of Oil and Gas office in Jakarta on Monday, 10 August 2026.

“The determination of the July 2026 ICP at US$81.68 per barrel reflects the dynamics of the global crude oil market, which has adjusted following the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the gradual recovery of global oil supply flows,” Laode said, quoted from the official statement.

Besides the ICP, several major international crude oil benchmarks also recorded declines in July. Brent crude traded on ICE fell by US$0.46 per barrel to US$83.97, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Nymex dropped US$2.57 to US$79.22 per barrel.

Dated Brent declined by US$2.06 per barrel to US$83.41, while the OPEC Basket fell US$7.00 to US$82.74 per barrel as of 30 July 2026. The ICP itself decreased from US$83.45 per barrel in June to US$81.68 per barrel in July.

According to Laode, international oil prices were influenced by geopolitical developments, supply conditions and global demand. He cited the de-escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, followed by a ceasefire and renewed opportunities for bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, as one factor affecting market movements.

Improving shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also helped strengthen market confidence. Citing International Energy Agency data, Laode said the temporary recovery in traffic through the strategic waterway contributed to an increase in global oil supply by 4.1 million barrels per day in June 2026, bringing total supply to 98.8 million barrels per day.

However, uncertainty remains, including the possibility of limited military escalation and changes in US crude oil inventories. These developments could influence the direction of international oil prices in the coming period.

The Indonesian government said it would continue monitoring international oil markets while maintaining a transparent ICP formula. The measure is intended to ensure that the ICP reflects global market dynamics while maintaining accountability in state finances and upstream oil and gas activities.