BMKG Forecasts Peak of Forest and Land Fires in September

RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) has forecast that the risk of forest and land fires (karhutla) in Indonesia will remain high over the coming months. The peak risk is expected to occur in September 2026, as dry conditions continue in several regions.

Head of BMKG's Satellite Imagery Analysis and Lightning Detection Team, Alpon Sepriando Manuruang, said the ongoing El Niño phenomenon could continue to affect weather conditions and increase the risk of forest and land fires.

“When associated with the rainy season and the potential for forest and land fires, the peak is indeed predicted to occur in September,” Alpon said in an interview with RRI Voice of Indonesia, Wednesday, August 26, 2026.

According to Alpon, the risk of forest and land fires is expected to begin declining in several areas in October 2026 as the rainy season arrives. However, some regions will still need to remain vigilant against potential fires.

These areas include Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and southern parts of Sumatra. BMKG estimates that the potential for forest and land fires in these areas will remain even as some regions begin entering a wetter period.

Alpon said the risk of forest and land fires is expected to gradually decline in November 2026, as the rainy season begins across more parts of Indonesia.

“In November, when the rainy season has begun, the potential for forest and land fires will gradually decrease,” he said.

Nevertheless, BMKG has urged the public and relevant stakeholders not to become complacent, as the risk of forest and land fires may persist as long as dry conditions continue. Prevention and response efforts must therefore be strengthened to anticipate fires in several high-risk areas.