RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed the Republic of Indonesia’s sovereign credit rating at BBB for long-term debt and A-2 for short-term debt, while maintaining a Stable outlook. The decision was announced in the research update titled "Indonesia Ratings Affirmed At 'BBB/A-2'; Outlook Stable" released on Monday, July 13, 2026, reaffirming Indonesia’s position within the investment-grade category.

In a press release, Indonesian Coordinating Ministry for Economy wrote that the affirmation reflects confidence in Indonesia’s resilient economic fundamentals despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and tighter global financial conditions. According to S&P report, Indonesia’s rating is supported by strong economic growth prospects, prudent macroeconomic policies, and relatively low net external debt and government debt compared with peer countries.

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, said the affirmation demonstrates international confidence in the government's economic policy direction. “Amid rising global uncertainty, Indonesia has maintained growth at around five percent, preserved fiscal discipline with a deficit below three percent of GDP, and strengthened governance in the natural resources sector," he said.

S&P projects Indonesia’s economy will expand by around five percent annually over the next two to three years, including real growth of 5.1 percent in 2026 and an average of 4.9 percent during 2026–2029. The agency also highlighted first-quarter 2026 economic growth of 5.6 percent year-on-year, supported by government spending and accelerated budget disbursement, while estimating gross domestic product per capita at approximately USD5,200 in 2026.

Fiscal discipline remains a key factor supporting the Stable outlook, with the government continuing to maintain the budget deficit below three percent of gross domestic product as mandated by law. S&P also noted that state revenue increased by 19 percent during the first five months of 2026, driven by improved tax administration, higher value-added tax collections, and stronger royalty and dividend income from the natural resources sector.

The rating agency also recognized the government's efforts to strengthen governance in the natural resources and mining sectors by improving centralized management and reducing revenue leakages. S&P highlighted the establishment of PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) and the strengthening of the Natural Resources Export Proceeds (DHE SDA) policy as measures expected to improve export foreign exchange earnings and reinforce Indonesia’s external position.

S&P further assessed that Bank Indonesia has maintained operational independence while successfully keeping inflation under control since the 2010s through its monetary policy framework and exchange rate flexibility. The agency also viewed risks to the government from the financial sector as relatively limited, citing banking sector assets below 60 percent of gross domestic product and manageable sovereign risks within the banking system.

Coordinating Ministry for Economy in its written statement also mentioned that S&P saw Indonesia’s rating could be upgraded if fiscal and external indicators strengthen further, including a narrower budget deficit approaching two percent of gross domestic product, sustained improvements in state revenue, lower financing costs, and exchange rate stability. Minister Airlangga underscored that the government remains committed to improving policy quality and predictability while advancing downstream industrialization, strengthening export proceeds governance, and increasing productivity to support a higher sovereign credit rating.